As the results of Tuesday’s Congressional election came in, it was clear: the Republicans had gained control of the House of Representatives, while the Democrats had lost seats but kept control of the Senate.
Representative John Boehner, a Republican from Ohio, expected to be named House Majority Leader, cried tears of joy. Senator Harry Reid, the Democrat from Nevada, said “The fight is far from over” as he expected to continue as Senate Majority Leader.
The pendulum has swung to the right. No doubt the “tea party” — which came close to unseating Reid — helped to motivate voters against the Democratic-led government. Senator-elect Rand Paul, the son of 2008 presidential candidate Ron Paul, said: “I have a message — a message from the people of Kentucky, a message that is loud and clear and does not mince words: we’ve come to take our government back.”
But is Rand Paul on the cutting edge or is he more of a fringe phenomenon — a Randerscheinung, so to speak? Within the Republican Party, it remains unclear just how much of an effect the “tea party” has had. Some other important “tea party” candidates didn’t win. Alaska Senator Lisa Murkowski’s (Republican) supporters chanted “Yes, we can!” as she announced victory over that state’s tea-party candidate.
What will happen now?
Republicans’ goal has been to prevent Obama from doing anything. Now they’ll have their chance. They won’t get to set major policy themselves, however, because any bills that come out of the House have to be approved by the Senate and then by Obama.
So the only possibilities are compromise and gridlock. We’ll probably see some of the former and a lot of the latter. If no significant legislation is passed by 2012, Republicans will be able to claim that Obama has been an ineffective president. Obama will, in turn, be able to blame the Republicans.
Many presidents have faced this situation, including Ronald Reagan in 1982 and Bill Clinton in 1994. The party of nearly every newly elected president loses seats in the first midterm election. So its fate will depend on which side is better able to communicate with voters. If the economy doesn’t improve, however, we can expect everyone who’s in office now — Democrat or Republican — to be worried about their jobs.
Looking ahead
This election was fought not only nationally, but also at the state and local level. Republicans gained seats in state legislatures, and a number of new Republican governors were elected. Being governor best shows you have the skills it takes to be president; so expect some of the new governors to be candidates for president in 2016 and 2020.
This election can affect the overall balance of power in the country in another way. The representation of voters is determined according to the national census, which was held this year. States whose populations have grown — typically southern and western states — will have more representatives in Congress. Each state is also free to redraw the boundaries of its voting districts.
Since the early 1800s, elected officials have found clever ways of drawing these boundaries so as to give their party a majority in as many districts as possible. With the aid of computers, this has developed into a real art. A Republican majority in Texas in 2000 drew very odd-shaped districts; at least one was a block wide and hundreds of kilometers long. Republicans spoke of using this method to get a “permanent majority”, but both parties are capable of this.
The governor of each state must approve the new boundaries, so more Republican governors now may mean more Republicans in Congress as early as 2012.
Republicans (and their predecessors) controlled Congress for most of the 19th century, Democrats for most of the 20th. What will the 21st century look like?
